Alliance Fractures in Yemen as Saudi and UAE-Backed Forces Clash

Introduction

The war in Yemen has entered a new phase of complexity. Forces backed by Saudi Arabia are now in direct military confrontation with forces backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This development signals a major fracture in the coalition that has been fighting Houthi rebels since 2015. The clash represents a shift from a unified front to a multi-sided struggle for influence.

The Immediate Incident and Location

Fighting broke out in the strategic southern province of Abyan. The clashes involved the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, loyal to President Rashad al-Alimi, and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces. Reports from the area detail the use of heavy weaponry and armed vehicles. This is not an isolated skirmish but part of a broader pattern of escalating tensions between the two factions across southern Yemen.

Who Are the Southern Transitional Council?

The Southern Transitional Council is a political group seeking independence for South Yemen. The region was a separate state until unification in 1990. The STC has a powerful military wing, known as the Security Belt Forces, which has been heavily trained, funded, and armed by the United Arab Emirates since 2015. The UAE views the STC as a capable, disciplined ground force and a strategic ally against groups it considers extremist.

The Strategic Importance of Southern Yemen

Control of southern Yemen, particularly the port city of Aden and surrounding areas, is a primary objective for both sides. Aden serves as the temporary seat of the internationally recognized government. It is also a crucial port for humanitarian and commercial goods. The STC already exerts de facto control over Aden and much of the south. The current fighting is an attempt by Saudi-backed forces to reassert the central government's authority, which the STC strongly resists.

Divergent Long-Term Goals: The Root of the Conflict

The clash stems from fundamentally different end goals. Saudi Arabia's primary objective is to restore the pre-2015 Yemeni government to power over a unified state, creating a friendly neighbor. The UAE, while also opposing the Houthis, has focused on securing southern Yemen's coastlines and islands. The Emiratis see a independent, stable, and UAE-aligned south as a more realistic and desirable outcome than a unified Yemen under what they perceive as a weak and potentially problematic government in Riyadh's orbit.

The Role of Foreign Patrons: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the war as the lead partners of a coalition. Over time, their priorities diverged. Saudi Arabia provides financial and military support to the official Yemeni government based in Riyadh and Aden. The UAE, which largely withdrew its own troops in 2019, continues to fund, advise, and supply the STC's forces. This has created two parallel, and now competing, military structures in the same theater of war.

Impact on the War Against the Houthis

This infighting severely undermines the original goal of defeating the Houthi movement, which controls the capital, Sanaa, and the north. It diverts resources, fighters, and attention from the northern front. The Houthi rebels have likely benefited from the discord, consolidating their own positions. The fragmentation of the anti-Houthi alliance makes a cohesive military strategy impossible and weakens any future negotiating position.

Humanitarian and Civilian Consequences

Yemen remains the world's worst humanitarian crisis. This new front of conflict exacerbates suffering for civilians in the south. Clashes disrupt the delivery of critical aid through Aden's port, threaten displacement, and cause new casualties. Infrastructure, already damaged from years of war, faces further destruction. Local communities are caught between multiple armed groups with differing agendas.

Attempts at Diplomacy and the Riyadh Agreement

In 2019, Saudi Arabia brokered a power-sharing deal known as the Riyadh Agreement between the Yemeni government and the STC. It was intended to halt similar clashes and form a unified cabinet. The agreement has repeatedly stalled and failed in its implementation. The current violence represents the complete collapse of that diplomatic arrangement, with both sides accusing the other of bad faith and treaty violations.

Regional Geopolitical Repercussions

The rift between Saudi and Emirati proxies in Yemen reflects broader regional dynamics. It illustrates how alliances of convenience can unravel when immediate threats recede and long-term interests clash. Other regional powers are watching closely, as the conflict reshapes alliances in the Arabian Peninsula. It also tests the limits of Saudi Arabia's ability to manage and unify its coalition partners.

The Path Forward: Stalemate or Escalation?

The immediate future points toward a protracted stalemate in the south. Neither side appears to have the capability to decisively defeat the other without a full withdrawal of support from their foreign patrons. This could lead to a formal partition of Yemen, with the STC controlling the south, the Houthis the north, and a contested central region. Further escalation is possible if Saudi Arabia or the UAE decides to increase direct involvement to tip the balance.

Conclusion

The confrontation in Abyan is a symptom of a deep fracture within the anti-Houthi alliance in Yemen. The war is no longer a simple binary conflict but a multi-layered struggle for power and influence. The clash between Saudi and UAE-backed forces reveals that the objectives of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are now in direct competition, transforming the southern front into a new primary battlefield. This development ensures increased instability, compounds the humanitarian disaster, and moves a sustainable political solution for all of Yemen further out of reach.