US-Iran Tensions: A Growing Threat to the Region and the Global Economy

The tensions between the US and Iran have now entered a very critical and serious phase, with negotiations on both sides remaining on the back burner, and yet military preparations and threats continue: The US-Iran nuclear talks are continuing with limited progress but no viable agreement has emerged, making the prospects for a diplomatic solution look bleak and tensions are rising; The US has significantly increased its military power in the Middle East, deploying several ships, fighter jets, and military capabilities, increasing the risk of a potential conflict in the region; US President Donald Trump has given Iran a deadline of 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement and has threatened limited military strikes in case of failure, after which the US Air Force has strengthened its military positions towards Iran; Iran is also reacting to the negotiations, some legal proposals and drafts of nuclear negotiations are being prepared, but Iran is insisting on maintaining its nuclear rights; on the other hand, global economic markets are also being affected, oil and gold prices have increased, which indicates the global economic effects of the tension; thus, the overall situation is tense, uncertain, and based on a mixture of military and diplomatic conflict on both sides, which is having an impact on regional security and the global economy. Furthermore, this tense situation has also worried the countries of the Gulf region, where an increase in behind-the-scenes contacts at the diplomatic level is being seen in order to prevent a possible conflict. According to international observers, if the negotiations fail completely, even a limited military clash could turn into a wider regional crisis, as the region has already become the center of various conflicts and security concerns. The United Nations and European powers are also closely monitoring the situation and are advising the parties to exercise restraint and adopt a diplomatic path, however, the facts on the ground show that both countries are busy strengthening their positions. Iran is repeating the position that it will not accept any compromise under pressure or threat, while the United States says that it reserves the right to take any possible steps to protect its interests and allies in the region. Due to this conflict, uncertainty is increasing in global markets, investors are adopting a cautious attitude and concerns about energy supplies are intensifying. Defense analysts believe that in the current situation, a single miscalculation or unexpected event can quickly worsen the situation, which is why keeping diplomatic channels open is considered essential. Overall, this crisis is not only a conflict between two countries, but its effects can spread to the entire Middle East, global trade, energy markets and international political balance, due to which this situation is being viewed with extraordinary seriousness around the world. This tug of war between the United States and Iran is no longer just a dispute between two countries, but has become a war of 'balance of power' centered on important passages such as the Strait of Hormuz. Defense experts believe that if limited military action is launched after the deadline given by the United States, Iran's 'metric warfare' capability in response could paralyze the global supply chain because Iran's drone program and ballistic missile technology are currently at a point where they have adopted a 'ready defensive position' to retaliate in the event of any direct attack. Similarly, the Gulf countries, which are geographically located on the brink of this conflict, are currently adopting a very cautious diplomacy path and the priority of these countries is to Economic stability is the preferred option over military, as any conflict could affect their grand development plans, which is why efforts by these states to activate back-channel diplomacy between Washington and Tehran have intensified in order to save the region from a war whose effects will not subside for decades. The wave of anxiety in the global energy markets is not limited to prices alone, but has become a major question mark over 'energy security'. If the conflict continues, crude oil prices could reach a level where the economies of developing countries will collapse and a new wave of global inflation will emerge. Therefore, defense analysts believe that in the current circumstances, a single miscalculation or unexpected event could rapidly worsen the situation. Therefore, keeping diplomatic channels open is considered essential because this crisis is not only a conflict between two countries, but its effects can spread to the entire Middle East, global trade, energy markets and international political balance. Due to this, this situation is being viewed with extraordinary seriousness around the world and the use of force is not a permanent solution to this problem, but the international community will have to play the role of a 'guarantor' and save the region sitting on this gunpowder pile. Written by: Malik Sarfaraz Hussain Awan