Iran Israel War: A Hypothetical Return

The long-smoldering IranIsrael conflict, over which few wars have ever been fought directly and which have been played out at times in proxy war, cyber assaults, and hype almost as often as in direct conflict, has enjoyed the special attention of the Coronavirus pandemic, which forced the catastrophe of the US withdrawal into IranIrancold war that, retrospectively, should not have been seen as such a surprise. In this hypothetical future, however, all of that has exploded into a full-blown conflict--and shifted the balance of power in the region and involving players in the international community.

It does not start with tanks, but with silence, followed by flash in the desert. It is around morning of June when the Israeli intelligence senses the Iranian troops moving at the Western border with Iraq and Syria. At the same time, Tehran points fingers to Israel following the alleged assassinations of another senior nuclear scientist in Tehran. It only takes a few hours and the wail of sirens of rockets fills the north of Israel, as Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored militia in Lebanon, fires hundreds of rockets over the border.

Israel retaliates. The Israeli Air Force goes into southern Lebanon bombing Hezbollah armories and command posts. However, this time Israel does not stop at that. To the shock and outrage of many, it initiates airstrikes over Iranian airspace directed against missile launchers and suspected nuclear enrichment plants in Iran, in the first instance near to Natanz and Isfahan.

In response, Iran uses ballistic missiles. Most are blocked by the Iron Dome and Arrow defensive systems of Israel, but a handful of them evade the defenses and land on military installations in the Negev and around Tel Aviv. Israel makes use of Article 40 of the Basic Law Israel- effectively declaring war. The struggle that used to be hidden in the dark comes loudly out in the open.

The geographic spill over is an instant catastrophe. The Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq commence attacking the bases of the U.S. and Israeli diplomatic missions. The United States, finding itself with the need to favor its ally against direct involvement and subsequent confrontation of the war on a regional basis, springs its naval deployment of extra aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf.

Historically hostile to Iran is Saudi Arabia which finds itself in a rather inconvenient position. It backs the Israeli activities against the Iranian influences silently and yet it cannot be openly pledged to support Israel since this would be met with dissatisfaction of the domestic population. However, it grants Israeli and American planes a minimal portion of its airspace a subtle, important change in allegiances in the Middle East.

In the meantime the world powers rush to control the fall-out. Russia as a supporter of Iran and supplier of military forces in Syria appeals to self-restriction yet supplies Iran with sophisticated anti-air weaponry. China, one of the key Iranian oil customers, calls on both parties to calm down. Vetoes leave the United Nations, as a paralyaed entity, unable to do anything but talk.

The human cost is starting to rise. People living in Tel Aviv and Tehran are also sheltered. There are areas that are demolished to their ground. In Gaza, Hamas escalates itself in assaults and Israeli air attacks are triggered. This leads to uproar in the westbank worsening crisis. The world oil prices become so expensive that it creates economic shocks usually thousands of miles away.

Cyber attacks worsen as the war has been going on the third week. Israel disables their power grid in parts of Iran; Iran attacks Israeli transportation systems in an attempt to hack them. The water treatment facilities, hospitals, banks are targeted. The battle extends out: it extends into the code and into the chaos.

But on both sides the pace cannot be kept up indefinitely. There is also internal unrest as protests broke out in principal cities of Iran. Israel with all the military superiority it possesses can not afford to engage in a long war against neighbors on various fronts. With the world putting pressure and two sides devastated, backchannel negotiations are aired, brokered secretly by Qatar and Switzerland.

The ceasefire is unlike at the end. Israel purports that it has made Iran a great deal weaker in terms of its missiles and nuclear weapons. Iran celebrates the fact of overcoming a direct attack of Israel. However, there is one truth as known by both nations and this is that nothing has been solved under the skin.

The region is ruined by the war. Thousands have been killed, economies have been destroyed, faith lost. The Abraham Accords that were previously viewed as a road to wider peace between Israel and Arab states are stagnated. Iran, already on its own, becomes still more oriented to the east- toward Russia and China. Israel in the meantime strengthens her military stance, and it is more alert than ever before.

The most enduring effect however is psychological. In the past decades, Iran and Israel had been waging a war of shadows in the form of proxies and deniability. This war makes the price of direct confrontation to be brutal. The latter is a reminder that rhetoric can turn into reality. And that in contempory warfare the victor can taste much like an ash.