Ukraine: China Harnesses ex-Soviet Central Asia in Bid to Resolve Crisis and...?

If there’s a political vacuum then power will fill it.

In a deft diplomatic flanking move, China is strengthening its ties with former Soviet Central Asian republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Remember that Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome — Space City — is leased from Kazakhstan, a hugely oil- and gas-rich country which is bypassing Russia with new oil export routes.

The phone call

The phone call came hot on the heels of the Paris gaffe by Lu Shaye the Chinese ambassador to France, who said, more or less, that Ukraine was not a sovereign state.

And after the call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China was willing to work with five countries in Central Asia — where Russia has substantial influence — to push for a consensus in solving the Ukraine crisis.

“China and the Central Asian countries share a similar view and stance on the crisis in Ukraine,” Qin said on 27 April 2023 following a meeting with his regional counterparts in the northwest Chinese city of Xian. The meeting was set to prepare for next month’s China plus Central Asian countries (C+C5) summit.

It is reported that he said that the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — all former Soviet states — spoke highly of the constructive conversation between Xi and Zelensky and believed it would be helpful for achieving a ceasefire and peace talks soon, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The foreign ministers expressed support for China’s “global advocacy and vision” and the “legitimate stance on the questions of Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet” as well as opposition to the “politicisation of human rights”, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Qin said China opposed interference in internal affairs by foreign forces and would “never allow anybody or forces to create chaos and unrest in Central Asia” (ThePaper.cn via SCMP).

Much to Putin’s chagrin no doubt, the ex-Soviet countries have been reluctant to endorse Russia’s aggression and have not supported Russia in the United Nations General Assembly resolutions condemning the invasion.

Geopolitical gamesmanship

In the meeting Qin pledged to deepen cooperation with Central Asia and make it “the pure land of win-win cooperation” instead of “a war zone of geopolitical contest”. Great words, but who doesn’t believe that China is engaged in a massive geopolitical game of ‘Go’?

Russian response

In response to the Chinese statement, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow had “taken notice of China’s willingness to facilitate negotiations with Ukraine”.

Did you notice the full-blown diplomatic enthusiasm in that statement?

Sino-Western tensions

These have been increasing since Trump kicked off his trade war with China. And it’s not only trade.

Tensions between China and the West remain, have led Beijing to deepen ties with regional partners — especially those who have taken part in the Belt and Road Initiative — to fill the economic vacuum left by Russia after Western sanctions.

China now has a nascent fleet of fast-jet aircraft carriers and coherent military forces; there is increasing tension in the South China Sea and additionally over Taiwan.

But the US does not have its eyes closed.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in March and said that the US would focus on helping the countries achieve a balance in their ties with each other and the outside world.

He also announced new funding to support economic growth for the Central Asian region as they experienced “spillover” from the war (Reuters).

Conclusion

I wrote recently about the gaffe by China’s Wolf Warrior Ambassador to France concerning the legitimacy of Ukraine as a sovereign state, but I’m now beginning to wonder if there wasn’t a play of good cop/bad cop going on.

Timings of phone calls and meetings might indicate a planned series of Chinese manoeuvres.

Putin plays chess.

Chess is a hierarchical game where the objective is to catch the king. ‘Go’ is an imperial game where each player seeks to enclose more territory on the board than their opponent. Putin understands hierarchies but they involve linear structures, thoughtlines and tactics.

But Go? The Chinese are masters.

And it’s not just about finding a solution to the Ukraine crisis. Far from it. The wooing of the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics is part of a much wider strategy which China has developed.

‘Go’ indeed.

They play a long game.

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My novels have themes of Chinese technology and subversion and are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple

Canonical link: This story was first published on Medium on 30 April 2023