Is This Our Last Summer?

The other day, I had a dream. I was sitting on some stairs outside, and a huge missile flew above my head and continued forward. A few moments later, a missile was fired in response from the opposite direction. I felt every emotion as if it was real life - war is here, I have to mentally prepare. I fully accepted defeat. I accepted that this is it.

It was just a dream, and I was relieved when I woke up, even though the aftertaste lingered in my body. Then I checked the news for the first time in a few days, and I saw everything: Israel had attacked Iran, and Iran had responded with a dozen missiles toward Israel - many intercepted, but not all. 

Suddenly, my brain went straight back into the dream-state I was in - I accepted that war would happen. I sang As The World Caves In while crying over how unprepared I am to let go.

At that point, maybe my fear seemed irrational. I live in Norway, safe and sound, far from the Middle East. I calmed down for a bit. But sadly, it didn't end there.

Since June 13, Israel has been carrying out a coordinated campaign targeting Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure. Then, yesterday we saw another escalation; the USA joined in with precision bunker-buster strikes on key sites in Iran. The move was meant to slow nuclear ambitions, but it sent shockwaves far beyond the region. 

People across the globe are now wondering if this could spiral completely out of control. On June 19, one Iranian missile struck a hospital, injuring many and shattering any illusion that the violence would remain purely strategic. So this time, the fear feels rather rational.

Even from the safety of a country like Norway, the anxiety isn't abstract anymore. Our screens bring every headline into our bedrooms. Distance doesn't dull the dread.

Of course, I'm not a military expert. What I say here isn't a final conclusion - it's not the final truth. Things may unfold differently than any of us expect. But based on what we know today, here are the most likely scenarios I see:

• Diplomatic De-escalation (a rough 40% chance).

This is the best-case scenario - and arguably still the most likely one. In this path, Iran and the USA, along with other world powers, realize that full-scale war is too dangerous and too costly. Behind-the-scenes negotiations and international pressure lead to a slow cooling of tension.

Existing nuclear agreements might be revived or strengthened. Both sides agree to limit military actions. Regional allies help mediate to avoid further conflict.

Life continues with caution and anxiety, but without immediate war. Economic and political stability might gradually improve.

• Limited Regional Conflict (a rough 30% chance).

If diplomacy fails, we could see a contained regional war. Iran might strike American bases or allies, and the USA could respond with targeted operations. Proxy groups aligned with Iran might increase attacks.

The violence would largely remain in hotspots like Syria and Iraq. Global powers might be involved diplomatically or through support, but not on the battlefield. Civilian casualties and displacement would rise.

This outcome is dangerous and deeply painful for those in the region, but avoids full-scale global warfare.

• Wider Escalation (a rough 20% chance). 

A mistake, a miscommunication, or a bold military move could draw more countries into the conflict. Alliances form, states take sides, and direct involvement spreads.

We might see troop deployments, naval clashes, and multi-front fighting. Large powers like Russia, China, or NATO members could be pulled in through treaty obligations or strategic interests.

This scenario means greater destruction, severe economic fallout, and a much harder road to peace. Nuclear weapons would still likely remain unused , but the risk increases.

• Global Conflict / World War 3 (a rough 10% chance).

The worst case - and thankfully, the least likely. Tensions explode. Nuclear strikes become possible. Widespread warfare breaks out across continents.

This outcome means massive loss of life, the collapse of economies, and long-term devastation. The entire international system could face an existential threat. Cyber destruction would play a big role. 

Most experts still consider this unlikely. But the fact that it's even on the table is enough to cast a long, cold shadow over this summer.

If escalation does happen, it will most likely follow this order: first, a regional conflict; then, potentially, a larger, multi-country war; and only after that would World War 3 even become a realistic risk. Think of it like a chain - each step increasing in severity, but requiring another threshold to be crossed. We are still far from that final point. But just knowing it's even conceivable is enough to shake us. And all of this - again - is just me reflecting on what we know today. It's not a guarantee. It's not a prediction. Things may turn out very differently. 

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Beyond all these hypothetical futures, there's the present - and it feels surreal. For my generation, this moment is like watching history crack open. Many of us use humor to cope: memes about "our last summer" and jokes like "I wanted to glow up, not blow up" have flooded social media. It's not denial. It's survival. We laugh because the alternative is to panic.

We've grown up under a cloud of crisis: school shootings, a pandemic, climate anxiety, and political division. Most of us have never truly experienced peace. So the jokes are sharp, the fear is real, and the exhaustion is collective.

We're watching, helpless, while world leaders far away decide how close we come to catastrophe. We can't vote in the U.S., we're not in the war rooms, and yet we're the generation that will live with the consequences - or maybe not live at all.

Some of us are asking serious questions now: Is this the Sarajevo moment of our century? In 1914, one assassination in a politically fragile Europe triggered World War I. Today, the Middle East is a tangled web of power, influence, and unresolved conflict. One wrong move, one miscalculation, and it might be impossible to walk it back.

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What happens next is uncertain. We are not doomed - not yet. While the situation remains tense, diplomacy is still an option. De-escalation is still possible. But it depends on global leadership, serious negotiations, and continued pressure from citizens around the world.

The stakes are high, and what unfolds over the next few weeks will matter - not just for the Middle East, but for global stability. And yes, for people like me, sitting halfway across the world, trying to make sense of it all.

This isn't hysteria. This isn't hopelessness. It's engagement. It's the choice to stay informed and emotionally honest in a moment that could define a generation.

It might not be the last summer. But it is a moment that will be remembered - and how we respond, collectively and individually, will shape what comes after.

How are you feeling about the world right now? Leave a comment below - I'm reading all of them.