US Defence Assessment Warns India: China’s Tactical Calm on LAC and Its Military Push Through Pakistan

A recent US defence assessment has issued a strategic warning to India, highlighting China’s evolving military posture along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and its deepening security cooperation with Pakistan. While Beijing appears outwardly calm along the disputed Himalayan border, analysts suggest this restraint is tactical rather than conciliatory, masking long-term military and geopolitical ambitions that could reshape South Asia’s security landscape.
Tactical Calm, Strategic Intent
Since the deadly clashes in eastern Ladakh in 2020, India and China have maintained an uneasy peace along the LAC. Disengagement talks, limited troop withdrawals, and diplomatic engagement have reduced the risk of immediate escalation. However, the US defence assessment argues that this calm should not be mistaken for de-escalation in intent.
According to the report, China has continued to strengthen its military infrastructure along the border—building roads, airstrips, logistics hubs, and surveillance systems. These developments enhance the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) ability to mobilize rapidly if tensions rise again. The absence of frequent clashes, therefore, may reflect Beijing’s preference for patience rather than compromise.
This approach allows China to avoid triggering international backlash while steadily improving its operational readiness against India.
The Pakistan Factor in China’s Strategy
One of the most concerning elements highlighted in the assessment is China’s growing military collaboration with Pakistan. Often described as an “all-weather strategic partnership,” the China–Pakistan relationship has expanded far beyond economic cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The report suggests that China views Pakistan as a critical strategic partner in counterbalancing India. Joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, arms transfers, and defence technology cooperation have increased steadily. From fighter jets to missile systems and naval assets, China has played a key role in modernizing Pakistan’s armed forces.
This cooperation, US analysts warn, creates the potential for a two-front security challenge for India—one along the LAC with China and another along the Line of Control with Pakistan.
Encirclement Without Confrontation
China’s broader regional strategy appears to focus on influence without direct confrontation. By strengthening Pakistan militarily, Beijing can indirectly pressure India while maintaining plausible deniability. This approach fits China’s preference for “gray-zone” tactics—actions that fall below the threshold of open war but still alter the strategic balance.
The assessment notes that China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean is also expanding, with ports, logistics facilities, and maritime partnerships extending from Gwadar in Pakistan to Sri Lanka and beyond. These developments increase China’s ability to project power near India’s maritime lifelines.
Implications for India’s Security Planning
For Indian defence planners, the US warning underscores the need for long-term strategic preparedness rather than short-term threat management. While diplomatic engagement with China remains important, the report suggests that India cannot rely solely on dialogue to secure its borders.
India has already responded by accelerating infrastructure development along the LAC, enhancing surveillance capabilities, and deepening defence partnerships with countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia under the Quad framework. Military modernization, particularly in air power, cyber capabilities, and space assets, is increasingly seen as essential.
The assessment also emphasizes the importance of intelligence coordination and early-warning systems to counter potential coordinated actions involving China and Pakistan.
Regional and Global Context
The US defence assessment reflects broader concerns in Washington about China’s rising military influence across Asia. For the United States, India is viewed as a key strategic partner in maintaining a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.
At the same time, the report stops short of predicting imminent conflict. Instead, it frames the situation as a slow-moving strategic competition, where decisions made today will shape regional stability for decades.
A Warning, Not a Prediction
Crucially, the assessment is not a forecast of war but a warning against complacency. China’s calm along the LAC may offer temporary stability, but the underlying power dynamics continue to shift. Beijing’s methodical approach—combining border management, regional partnerships, and military modernization—signals a long-term strategy rather than a desire for immediate confrontation.
For India, the challenge lies in balancing diplomacy with deterrence, cooperation with preparedness, and regional leadership with internal resilience.
Conclusion
The US defence assessment serves as a reminder that in modern geopolitics, silence does not always signal peace. China’s tactical calm along the LAC, coupled with its growing military engagement with Pakistan, represents a complex and evolving challenge for India.
As South Asia navigates an increasingly multipolar world, India’s ability to anticipate, adapt, and respond to these shifting dynamics will be critical. The coming years may not be defined by open conflict, but by strategic patience, power projection, and the careful management of rival ambitions.