China’s Box Office Presales Fall Over 60% From Last Year in Crucial Lunar New Year Window

China’s film industry is facing a surprising slowdown as presales for the Lunar New Year box office—a period traditionally considered the most lucrative for Chinese cinema—have plummeted by more than 60% compared with last year. The sudden drop has raised concerns among producers, distributors, and exhibitors about audience appetite, content strategy, and the sustainability of China’s rapidly expanding movie market.
Industry analysts report that, as of early February, ticket presales for the first week of the Lunar New Year period were just over $120 million, compared with $320 million during the same period in the previous year. This decline comes despite a slate of highly anticipated releases, including major domestic blockbusters and high-profile co-productions with foreign studios.
Factors Behind the Decline
Several factors appear to be contributing to the sharp fall in presales. Analysts cite a combination of audience fatigue, market saturation, and changing viewing habits. After years of unprecedented growth, Chinese audiences are increasingly selective, often favoring streaming platforms over cinemas for convenience and cost-effectiveness.
“The market is no longer simply about releasing big titles and expecting box office gold,” said a Shanghai-based film distributor. “Audiences are more discerning and have more options than ever. Presales reflect the mood of the market, and this year, the mood is cautious.”
Content quality is also under scrutiny. While blockbuster marketing campaigns have dominated social media platforms, early reviews and audience reactions to trailers have been mixed. Some industry insiders suggest that recent films fail to deliver the compelling storytelling and high production values expected from Lunar New Year releases, traditionally a showcase of domestic cinematic excellence.
Impact on the Industry
The presales slump has immediate financial implications for producers and cinema chains. Lunar New Year often accounts for 30–40% of a studio’s annual revenue, making it a critical window for recouping production costs and generating profits. Lower-than-expected ticket sales could lead to tighter budgets for upcoming projects, reduced investment in domestic content, and delays in planned releases.
Exhibitors are also feeling the pinch. Cinema chains, which rely heavily on this period to offset slower months, have begun reevaluating staffing, scheduling, and promotional strategies. Some chains are offering deeper discounts and bundled packages in an effort to attract audiences, while others are emphasizing enhanced cinematic experiences such as premium seating and immersive audio-visual technology.
Streaming and Changing Habits
Streaming platforms have emerged as a formidable competitor to traditional cinemas. Platforms offering early access to films, subscription models, and interactive features are reshaping audience expectations. Analysts believe that the presales drop signals a broader trend: a growing segment of Chinese consumers prefers the flexibility of at-home viewing, particularly for family-friendly content that has traditionally dominated the Lunar New Year window.
“Lunar New Year used to be a communal cinema experience,” said a Beijing-based cultural commentator. “Now, the communal aspect often happens at home, with family members streaming the same films together rather than going out to theaters.”
Market Saturation and Audience Fatigue
Another factor is market saturation. China releases hundreds of films annually, and during peak periods, competition for audience attention is fierce. With multiple high-profile releases scheduled simultaneously, consumers are faced with difficult choices, leading to lower presales for individual films.
Audience fatigue is evident on social media platforms, where discussions reveal skepticism toward big-budget productions and a preference for content that offers novelty and emotional resonance. Analysts note that marketing campaigns alone are no longer sufficient to guarantee presales success; content quality, word-of-mouth, and audience trust now play a more decisive role.
Looking Ahead
Industry watchers caution that while the presales drop is significant, it may not translate directly into a proportional decline in overall box office revenue. Weekend peaks, last-minute ticket purchases, and strong word-of-mouth can still drive substantial earnings.
However, the trend serves as a warning for studios and distributors. As China’s film market matures, success depends increasingly on understanding audience preferences, investing in compelling storytelling, and innovating beyond traditional marketing strategies.
The Lunar New Year window has long been a symbol of the industry’s vitality and cultural resonance. This year’s presales decline underscores a shift in audience behavior and the growing influence of alternative viewing platforms. For China’s film industry, the challenge is clear: adapt to changing habits, elevate content quality, and find ways to engage audiences in a landscape that is no longer guaranteed by tradition alone.